Finally in stage 4 the death and birth rates are balanced again but at a much lower level. Countries at this stage will usually be undeveloped. Birth rates will remain high. Death rates fall due to:. Stage 3: Total population is rising rapidly. The gap between birth and death rates will narrow. Natural increase is high. Death rates will now remain low and steady to 15 per 1, but birth rates will fall quickly down to around 18 per 1, Improvement in farming technology and increase in food supply Better nutrition, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene and improvement in public health system.
Increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs Example: poorest developing countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bolivia, sub-Saharan countries such as Niger, Uganda and middle east countries like Yemen, Palestinian Territories are still in stage 2.
Stage Three: Post-Industrial Revolution late expanding —increase slows down Birth rate falls due to the availability of contraception. Reduction of child labour- fewer children being needed to work in farm due to mechanization of farming Death rate stays at low level due to improved health conditions An increase in the status and education of women Total population still rises rapidly due to population momentum.
On the way:South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have begun to move into stage 3 Stage Four: Stabilization low stationary — very slow increase Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families. Both birth and death rate are low Total population is still high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate.
United States, Canada, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Brazil, Singapore, Iran, China, Turkey, Thailand and Mauritius Stage Five: Declining population Low birth rate along with an aging population leads to declining population Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases like obesity, stress and diabetic.
Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level Example: Countries like G ermany, Italy, Japan, Russia leading to a shrinking population What happens to birth and death rates? Demographic transition model. Germany as the stage 5 country. Stage 1 to stage 3 countries. Population momentum Population momentum refers to population growth or decline, which continues despite the falling or rising birth or fertility rate.
Despite the decline in overall population growth rate, the absolute size of the human population will continue to increase over the next several decades because of population momentum. Because this demographic group is so large in absolute numbers, even if each woman has fewer children than in the past, there will still be a significant increase in global population over the next several decades.
This is an example of positive population momentum. Most of the population growth over the next several decades is expected to occur in developing countries, where growth rates are generally higher than for developed countries. The United States is an exception, with one of the most rapidly growing populations of any developed nation.
Limitations of the model The model is a generalization that applies mostly to the industrialized countries of the western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world. The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America.
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